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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Arizona Cardinals 40

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 32-P.Taylor [7-K.White].

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model