4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 33 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 10-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to SF 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Cowing to SF 34 for 15 yards (36-A.Chachere; 20-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP