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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 32-P.Taylor right tackle to ARI 36 for 9 yards (21-G.Williams, 34-J.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model