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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to SF 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.51 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP