4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:41) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP