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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 88-J.Whittington left end to SEA 49 for 5 yards (8-C.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model