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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to LA 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model