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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Los Angeles Rams 22

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to LA 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 22 for 17 yards (88-A.Barner).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP