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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 16-J.Karty 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model