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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model