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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model