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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short left to 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.26 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP