4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan to NO 9 for 33 yards (0-U.Amadi). PENALTY on TB-15-J.McMillan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 9.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model