Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(2:25) 43-M.Hayball punts 36 yards to TB 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.56 EP
75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model