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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 19-B.Grupe 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP