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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(:11) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model