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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.18 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP