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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 21-Ja.Williams up the middle to TB 15 for 6 yards (32-J.Hayes, 54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model