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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 5-J.Browning punts 52 yards to NO 12, Center-86-E.Deckers. 17-D.Pettis to NO 21 for 9 yards (41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model