Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(7:12) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to DET 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 14 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.54 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model