Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Detroit Lions 24

(10:23) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 26 for 9 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.69 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model