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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:28) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP