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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 10

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model