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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model