4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Addison (0-T.Arnold).

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.35 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 2, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model