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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.20 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model