4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 42

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 9-Ja.Williams (90-J.Bullard).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model