4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP