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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 3

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(10:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.41 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 3, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model