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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP