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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model