4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 33

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.79 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP