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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 40

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 11-T.Tucker to LAC 29 for 11 yards (29-T.Still).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP