4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 18

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Bowers (3-D.James).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.33 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP