Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 12-D.Davis to LAC 12 for no gain (34-T.Harper).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.14 EP
50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model