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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP