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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.98 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model