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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 17 for 10 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model