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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.42 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model