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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LV 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler).

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -3.13 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model