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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model