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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 59

Denver Broncos 38 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model