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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at DEN 49 for -7 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model