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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model