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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 72

Denver Broncos 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to KC 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 32 for 4 yards (20-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model