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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 14-M.Araiza punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model