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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 34-S.Perine pushed ob at DEN 23 for 13 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.60 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model