Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 7

(14:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-26-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model