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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 64

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP