Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 7

(5:41) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-D.Johnson to HOU 17 for no gain (26-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model